Last week I previewed most of the upcoming summer releases and gave some indication of how I thought they would perform at the box office. To complete the picture, here are the star bond adjustments you can look for in the next two months.
CANTH Magic Number is 33. If CANTH fails to make 33, JOCON will adjust to 800. This is actually an improvement from his current position. More importantly, if the movie does make 33, JLHEW will adjust DOWN to 1333. Since she is now around 2500, that would be a major loss. Someone holding 500 would lose close to 600K in an afternoon.
SXDAY AHECH will adjust to 1143 (-200). DSCHW will adjust to 1667 (+300). If SXDAY can make 65, he will adjust to 1875.
DIRTY CCHAS will adjust to 888 (+40) if DIRTY fails to make 14.
XFILE First, to the clueless X-philes who have driven GANDE over 2000 let me state once again: GANDE WILL NOT ADJUST FOR XFILE!!! Okay. Now that that piece of work is out of the way, on with the good news.
If XFILE delist=157+, DDUCH goes all the way to 5000 (+1750). If delist is 127-157, he adjusts to 3750 (+600). Thank you David for taking the role in 'Playing God' last year.
Other bonds with an adjust: AMUEL will likely adjust to 1167 (-100) and MLAND to 1857 (+400).
MULANEMURP will to 1250 (-800) if MULAN makes 96. Otherwise he will not adjust.
OUTOF and DRDLT These are listed together because of ABROO, who appears in both films, will make an upward adjust to 1600 (+200). VRHAM also appears in both films, but likely will not adjust. GCLOO, DFARI and JLOPE will also not adjust. If EMURP adjusts for MULAN, he will likely adjust down to 800 (-1200) for DRDLT.
ARMAG The fact that this movie will be a blockbuster has driven the star bonds far above any possible adjustments. BWILL is likely headed for a 50% loss, down to 1400. BAFFL to 1800 (-1300) and SBUSC to 1125 (-270). LTYLE will adjust to 1875, which is where she is right now. BBTHO will adjust to 1625 (+100). So if you are looking to start a LOSER fund, like Don Corleone, invest heavily in ARMAG bonds.
LTHLW CROCK will be IPO'd later today, but there is no information on his page yet to indicate which movies HSX will use to determine his TAG. RRUSS and MGIBS will not adjust for LTHLW. DGLOV and JPESC will adjust to 1125 (-225/-50).
SMALL and MADLN At this time, no active bonds are in either film. However, look for JMOHR on an IPO page near you.
ZORRO Another reason we need short-selling on HSX. ABAND will adjust to 1091 (-650) and AHOPK to 1083 (-300).
SVPRI If SVPRI makes 179+ MDAMO adjusts to 1333 (-1000). THANK could adjust down to 750 (-2250) if SVPRI fails to make 8.69 at the box office. It'll probably do that by 2PM Saturday.
MAFIA ODUKA should adjust up to 1125 (+325). There is a reason the Bond King bought 500 shares. :-) JMOHR is also in this film.
PAREN DQUAI should adjust to 1125 (+350).
Some other releases worth watching: JLCUR (VIRUS), RPHIL (FFTY4) the stars of AVNEG (August 14 release). If this movie is a hit, it could damage their bond value. (Yeah, their TAG would go up and their price down - gotta love the HSX).
To sum up: there are some opportunities to advance in the bond market through adjustments. ABROO, DQUAI, DSCHW, MLAND and DDUCH, if you have a big enough port. There is a huge potential downside however, with stars like BWILL, BAFFL, ABAND, MDAMO, EMURP and JLHEW due for large falls.
This data comes from the HSX pages for each bond and movie. TAGs and estimated adjustments were calculated using the information on those pages. Release dates were obtained through official movie web sites when possible; MovieWeb and IMDB when no official site was available.